The original war · archived
August 1–31, 2026 · 43 players · 18,944 scored posts
The first war's roster, follower records, tweets, and results are preserved separately from round two. Division champions are ranked by days won, then total points, using the original rules. The original site had no end-date filter, so all its stored eligible posts remain counted here.
Back to Twitter Wars 2 →🏆 Champion: @venividinotavi
🏆 Champion: @Liface
🏆 Champion: @funplings
🏆 Champion: @__drewface
🏆 Champion: @qiaochuyuan
258 posts · 205,300 points
14,300 points
@codesfast @SpencrGreenberg I assumed that was the point: a survey lacking in very attractive women makes sense when you're trying to figure out differences in taste. A selection where almost everyone is going to vote yes doesn't tell you much. But the 50:50 options are the most interesting.
11,100 points
@jmduke Talenti had the perhaps biggest falling off in the history of frozen food.
4,500 points
@tylercowen Dinosaur Tyler one day before the asteroid: Resources everywhere! Everything is great!"
3,600 points
Based on Priya's tweet, 13 people answered a survey on what they have found through Fractal: 1. Have you found a better fitting job inspired in any way by Fractal? • Yes: 53.8% (7) • No, but job is already best fit: 23.1% (3) • No: 23.1% (3) 2. Have you hosted an event within or inspired by Fractal? • Yes: 84.6% (11) • No: 15.4% (2) 3. Have you found romance through Fractal? • Yes: 30.8% (4) • No: 53.8% (7) • In a relationship prior to Fractal: 15.4% (2)* *this option was added midway 4. Have you found genuine friendship through Fractal? • Yes: 100% (13) • No: 0% (0) 5. Have you started an independent project within or inspired by Fractal that you feel may count as your life's work? • Yes: 23.1% (3) • No: 76.9% (10)
3,500 points
@RFishBlueFish @AlexGodofsky It also means that you only see the stupidest questions on Reddit, because those are the people who haven't yet figured out how to use LLMs.
3,400 points
What I imagine every time I see a reference to the Claude Squad https://t.co/2LBwlZVhXj https://t.co/0qB5DkiSlh
3,000 points
I got Claude Code to search my old chatlogs and make me a reader which contains virtually every chat platform I've ever used, all the way back to AOL Instant Messenger in 2002! https://t.co/arB1Y76QJt https://t.co/R72z6MXuZj
2,400 points
@liamdanielduffy @NYC_DOT Are you SERIOUS?? Was it the tweet or did you actually email anyone, was this part of a greater campaign?
2,000 points
@wordrotator There was a meme going around where when asked if they were "part of Fractal" every single person that was clearly part of Fractal would say no (I always said yes, though, because I'm a patriot)
1,900 points
I've actually been impressed with how much NYC does not succumb to this mentality, compared to other places in the country. One year in Pittsburgh, out of our large friends group of 30-year-olds, we tried forming a clique of people not in LTR/married/kids who still wanted to go out. There were... three of us!
1,900 points
Feeling the need to write the definitive soft lighting manifesto https://t.co/oi5BLRj7dh
1,800 points
@TylerAlterman Why do you say they don't work?
1,700 points
@Prigoose @michaelcurzi They saw the smoke. https://t.co/Zv5ZOc9CfY
1,700 points
@SpencrGreenberg I am relatively unsurprised that women are less picky when faced with no consequences for their picks. It is when real life consequences are deployed in vivo that the pickiness goes exponential.
1,600 points
I'm thinking for more remote job postings or places where the ask or offer would be global and cross-community. To me, cuties should itself be a community, and as a large one, it's quite valuable. Whereas if I am just targeting someone within Fractal I am already well served by on the Fractal Discord. Of course, you might run into a clash between this and the classifieds but I think that could be remediated with gentle suggestions and even admin action.
1,600 points
It's crazy to me how many organizations just start their business without defining a mission statement or values, and then wonder why things aren't getting done as efficiently as they could be. Over the years, I've been increasingly leading visioning exercises for several organizations I've been involved. I'm doing one right now and finding it so fun, I feel like it could be a full-time career for me! The process that I usually take is: 1. First, define our mission and values. 2. Then, define the principles we want to operate by. 3. Next, we work backward from what it takes to accomplish the mission to where we are today, to identify concrete goals, and the funnel it takes to get there. 4. Then, and only then, we determine what operational changes will help us achieve those goals.
1,500 points
Highly in favor of rating on a bell curve - this is how attractiveness is actually distributed! The problem is that over time your score calculations have drifted away from the front end. Currently, you are still expressing the scores to the user as a percentile, which can't be on a bell curve. For example, if I inspect my actual Elo percentile, it's 69%. But my profile reports that the photo was "chosen" 49-68% of the time, your recomputed bell curve score with error bars, which is lower than my Elo rating, which can't make sense. I think what you're actually trying to do is give someone one score on the bell curve to make things fairer. Perhaps consider a rating out of 10, so for me it would be "others think you're a 4.8-6.5/10". You could then still show the actual Elo percentiles with error bars underneath.
1,500 points
The most accessible forms of media to best understand the coming few years: Prey, Michael Crichton (book) Jurassic Park, Michael Crichton (book and 1993 movie) I, Robot, Isaac Asimov (book and 2004 movie) Her, Spike Jonze (2013 movie) Ex Machina, Alex Garland (2014 movie)
1,500 points
Honestly, https://t.co/Q4WCNdakSs 2005-2018 was the pinnacle. My design inspiration was "professor's homepage". https://t.co/s45Qi5JhSR https://t.co/Ipg5k8kSoN
1,500 points
Extemely common failure mode I see when someone creates an online community: creating too many channels/subforums Your 10 person Discord doesn't need 17 channels Your low traffic forum doesn't need 3 layers of 50 nested subforums Start with one. Break off when topics arise. Build Lean.
1,400 points
@TylerAlterman I raise you Planescape Torment: https://t.co/9cEb5YJdpn
1,400 points
@Prigoose Holy moly. Had no idea this was happening. Perfect example of @__drewface's point about testing ideas in the wider world as soon as possible, and not just building stuff for Fractal internally
1,400 points
100% of the people that ask for your event/presentation to be recorded so they can watch later will never watch it Don't give in to the terrorists
1,200 points
@KelseyTuoc I'm incredibly proud to be an effective altruist since discovering a Brian Tomasik video on Reddit in 2016, and always have been. It is the best movement with the greatest people, and I'm not surprised it has risen to prominence.
1,200 points
@TylerAlterman • The Olive Garden in Times Square, which has unlimited breadsticks
1,200 points
I think it's underestimated how many normies claiming that "AI sucks and totally hallucinates" only have exposure to AI through Google's AI overview.
1,200 points
@adic_9 I hope one day you are able to meet rationalist legend Alex K Chen: https://t.co/B15Kzw9n7t
1,100 points
In 2020, my roommate and I were talking about the possibility of Trump winning re-election. I mentioned that FiveThirtyEight had him at 24%; "Flip a coin twice, and there you go." His eyes light up: "Do you have a coin?" We pat our pockets and come up empty. But we remember we're standing right next to the Alexa in our kitchen, which surely can reliably flip a coin for us. We decide that heads means Trump loses and tails means he wins. Paulo addresses the device: "Alexa, flip a coin." "Heads." We cheer, mutedly. "Alexa, flip a coin." "You got heads." "Alexa, flip a coin." "Flipping. It's heads." We cheer again, louder this time, tongue-in-cheekly acknowledging how ridiculous it is that we're now invested in Alexa's thoughts on our fake election. "Alexa, flip a coin." "Heads." In light disbelief, I saunter over to within spitting distance of the device. I try it out myself: "Alexa, flip a coin." "You got heads." I shake my head skeptically: "This has to be rigged. Alexa, flip a coin." "Flipping, it's heads." "Wait... what?" We look at each other, dumbfounded. Maybe the coin flip functionality is actually broken? I pull out my phone and start searching: "alexa coin flip bug". While I'm doing this, he continues, his face still screwed up into some mix of amazement and incredulity: "Alexa, flip a coin." "Heads." I can't find anything on Google about the coin flip functionality being rigged. I turn my eyes back to the scene: "Alexa, flip a coin." "You got heads." That's eight. I'm incredulous. "There's no way! There's no f---- way!" I exclaim. Is Amazon's randomizer algorithm completely broken and no one has ever noticed? "Maybe the developers hate Trump so much, they programmed this on purpose," Paulo jokes. "Alexa, flip a coin." "Flipping, it's heads." Nine!!! We're glued to the robot now: the accursed puck has clearly glitched out and is returning only heads. Maybe we can report it and get a bug bounty or something! "Alexa, flip a coin." "Tails."
1,100 points
Claude + ChatGPT adversarial collaboration: Create a Notion where all your data lives: complete symptom history, every lab test done, all notes from Doctor's appointments, every intervention trialed and notes from that, daily log going back years. Install the Notion skill and have one LLM read from the data. Ask it: - from everything you know about me, what is your stack ranked order for what is going on? Based on the top three diagnoses, give me tests to run for differential diagnosis. While I'm running the test, give me your top 10 treatments to try. Have it write the output to a Notion note. Then go to the other LLM and say "Check first LLM's work and write output to Notion." Go back and forth a few times until you're satisfied.
1,000 points
Every skill I've been maximizing my entire life (charisma, sales, judgement, social skills, community, leadership) has become critically important as the AI revolution culls knowledge work. It feels... validating I guess.
1,000 points
In 2016 I came across a video of @reducesuffering on Reddit explaining why we have a moral duty to prevent extreme forms of suffering. It was then I knew I was an effective altruist, and I wanted to dedicate my life to reducing suffering. I have never and will never apologize for being an Effective Altruist (nor am I adjacent - I'm full on). My life will always be dedicated to reducing the most extreme forms of suffering, until we live in a world free of pain. The Effective Altruist movement continues to be the best vehicle to do that in, and I feel great to be in company with the best, smartest, most effective, most goodhearted people on earth.
1,000 points
@wordrotator Social skills? Event organizing? Flirting? In person sales? Surely those will be among the last to fall, at least.
1,000 points
@__drewface @christineist Direct link to the post: https://t.co/HosfhZROgE
1,000 points
Depends a lot on context, but my observation is that the meta for professional photos has generally flipped (for men). There was a period on apps starting around 2013 where DSLR photos would crush because no one had them. But around 2019 every guy started getting photoshoots and they started to be viewed as tryhard. This was right around the same time that phone cameras got really good. Now, the meta is "try as little as possible". I scraped the Study of Us API when it was public to pull the top 50 male photos - almost all of them were phone cameras and most were even selfies. Many were blurry with not great lighting - intentionally not tryhard. (age plays a role as well - some of the older top men had professional shots - i suspect that older women have not caught up to the meta yet, or it's simply more acceptable as an older guy to signal that you have the resources to afford or think about a professional camera)
1,000 points
I think that a 100% is not desirable for romance or job, or else the community would be very insular or, dare I say, cult-like! I also think a community serving as the sole inspiration for all of its members life's work is unrealistic. Essentially, I think these results are fantastic and I don't think Goodharting towards higher numbers would be a good thing.
1,000 points
@fractaltechnyc Note that shady here meant "covered by trees" and not "a walk west from the Jamaica LIRR stop"
1,000 points
@Prigoose Everyone check discord, I've just created a poll to see how Fractal is doing on these indicators: https://t.co/CKef1E2XoQ (you need to have the community role to view this channel)
1,000 points
@__drewface I'll happily bet the under on this. I think human-created great writing will always be higher status than AI-created great writing. COMPUTA, remind me in 5 years for Andrew to pay me one dollar!
1,000 points
This is the greatest tribute to a person I believe I have ever read. May I have the honor of being remembered this way one day. https://t.co/ib7qiAcjhG
1,000 points
@liamdanielduffy @fractaltechnyc Please put these shots on the website as accent pieces!
900 points
Seth deserves more followers. Everyone follow Seth. https://t.co/7lMjWp9loJ
900 points
WHAT PEOPLE SAY: 2011 "is a thing" 2014 yaasss salty lowkey 2015 yeet woof bae 2016 slay lit adulting woke 2017 deadass human "did a thing" fuck me up extra litty curved 2018 my guy 2019 bet my person lean in (to something) it's not that serious i love that for you stan 2020 come get your boy hits different looking like a snack 2022 secure the bag cap mid ayo pause say less rizz valid 2023 sibling girly pop cooking 2024 [x] is crazy! periodt. ate and left no crumbs trust 2025 glazing on my bingo card yapping opps type shit not me [verb]-ing... the function overwhelm (as a noun) ragebait unc (note: online-only for now)
900 points
Look into Glicko 2 if you haven't already. We did a deep dive on rating algorithms for @usetopscore Each photo gets a rating and a rating deviation. New faces have high deviation, so beating or losing to them barely moves a veteran. This could also be implemented alongside a higher uncertainty range for new photos.
900 points
@wordrotator There's a post for that: https://t.co/h8N5j8vAoY
900 points
@Prigoose I would love sporadic "interesting day at the campus today reports" a la Keith McNally https://t.co/NiYetn5rAv
900 points
@strangestloop Warfare is the greatest war movie ever made https://t.co/AgBUqNqwd7
900 points
@__drewface Ignore the above tweet, participate in https://t.co/SHM31MZm5a and reap EPIC points redeemable for plastic trinkets at the drink counter!
900 points
@chill__berrt I am once again asking everyone to read Prey (2002) https://t.co/Te0KZMRHsL
900 points
There's a rationalist concept called "noticing you’re confused" (https://t.co/aGLXCWNnR9). The idea is to trust your instinct to think differently when everyone else is doing something that doesn’t seem right. I propose a counter-mental model: "noticing when everyone else is not confused." The next time some rationalist argues that the way nearly everyone has done something for decades is obviously wrong, perhaps he or she should consider that all those people intuitively understand something you're missing!
800 points
@sergeantsup From what I observe it's quickly taking over the gay community (e.g. the "queer community") too. Honestly, it's kind of taking over any niche or alternative community. Can't just be in the minority anymore. Everything has to be culture war.
800 points
It's crazy that the word infohazard has only been around since Nick Bostrom coined it in 2011. We never had a concept for something that, when introduced in conversation, causes harm?
800 points
@fractaltechnyc Such a good photo of your curious engaged nature, @Prigoose!
800 points
It's always interesting doing this because when you start asking people about mission statement and values, operational details always bubble up to the surface. I think it's because people are usually so ensconced in their part of the work that they find it hard to zoom out and think high level. But I usually play it loose and I think everything that bubbles up is valuable because you can always reserve it for a future section of the visioning exercise.
800 points
Sad! Bigly Yuge Low IQ Covfefe Obamna Like a dog Fake news Total loser Sleepy Joe Believe me You're fired Low energy Lock her up Maybe ever Quiet, piggy No collusion Tremendous Stable genius Big, beautiful Meatball Ron Build the wall Nasty woman Stop the count Beautiful dogs Braggadocious Crooked Hillary I alone can fix it Many such cases Drain the swamp Thanks, very cool Very disrespectful Perfect phone call American carnage Shithole countries Open the schools! Concepts of a plan Read the transcript Get those lights off! Bing bing bong bong We do a little trolling Things of that nature Bring me the poison! I have the best words The N-word - Nuclear! That man is disgusting! Everything is computer They're eating the dogs Stand back and stand by I love the poorly educated Make America Great Again The failing New York Times Many people are saying this From the standpoint of water Immediately, perhaps sooner Maybe I'm not heaven-bound They're not sending their best Very fine people on both sides Trump derangement syndrome A lot of people don't know that He's a beautiful, handsome man Looked disgusting, nipples protruding The likes of which nobody's ever seen You're telling me now for the first time In all fairness, a nice, loving relationship Thank you for your attention to this matter Happy Thanksgiving to all, even the haters and losers Since Shakespeare, has any one man ever had this much memetic spread over the English language?
800 points
@grin_io Feedback: classes should say number of spots available instead of number of people applied (creates urgency)
800 points
@brickywhat I like your vibe a lot. Please move to @fractal_nyc and teach social skills classes
800 points
@yazinhal This is the fate of every cloud notes app, apparently @evernote
800 points
@victorckumar All of those things had mixed to bad outcomes. I think there are probably better examples!
800 points
@SpencrGreenberg That's the end conclusion. But much microsex happens along the way. Including even swiping on real profiles, where real-time pickiness can be observed in vivo.
800 points
I should use AI to dig up all my bad predictions. https://t.co/7A49oesjcR
800 points
Due to what I would assume are biases from people that train it, Claude, with each successive version, talks more and more like a Bay Area Rationalist, diction I have been surrounded by since 2014, so I feel right at home. But do outsiders find this jarring? My Twitter following is probably the wrong audience to ask this question to.
800 points
@pav_light @lydialaurenson Thank you for your service to our elite band of upstanding gentlemen. Now, "had?!" Would you reduce this gallant Eagle to merely a fling? Let him into your life! To Tie your knots! To Upright your canoes! To Scavenge for wildberries! To be discussed in person. https://t.co/0Ab38sZqzo
800 points
@pav_light I always hated answering that question, and never asked it Because it was so hard to describe "what I do" to people that weren't 100% in tune I also mostly just defaulted to "thinking about philosophy"
700 points
@FritoLabia I'm still scarred by the Something Awful Forums post in 2005 one day before the book came out. No text, just a subject line "SNAPE KILLS DUMBLEDORE, VOLDEMORT KILLS SNAPE, HARRY KILLS VOLDEMORT" I never read a book again.
700 points
@sacredmargs @pee_zombie #1 coiner of catchy things
700 points
@pav_light Straight into the LinkedIn bio
700 points
@__drewface What is your source or intuition for these amounts of money being spent, and what do you think it's being spent on? I believe the vast majority of the discourse is organic.
700 points
Queer people are the loudest voices and dominate the public discourse, whereas gay men have retreated into private communities. The public discourse in every community is increasingly dominated by abnormal minorities (though I suppose this was always the case, only that who a minority is has changed)
700 points
@wordrotator @__drewface I don't think it's good, I think it's just different. Just like the buggy drivers who had their jobs automated by automobiles, we adapt to new uses of our skills (and in Central Park, some still exist - and make a living!)
700 points
@Mirs_____ @Benthamsbulldog I will be the first to break it to you: preference markets are not all that efficient
700 points
@sergeantsup Bernie has been early to the game! There's a video of him meeting with Nate and Elizier some time ago: https://t.co/yLs1Io5NVt
700 points
@__drewface Please share when done!
700 points
@christineist There should be a global one, too! I would find that most useful as the communities I'm part of already have their own bulletin board equivalents for local stuff.
700 points
The larger your platform and the less familiar your audience, the lower status it is for you to publicly respond to criticism. In person, in a closed room, if someone attacks you in front of everyone, you usually have to respond. Your silence can look like guilt because the audience is constrained and close. On Twitter, if 100 people reply to your post, jumping into every argument lowers your status; you are signaling that you allow strangers to pull you into their frame. Surprisingly, I see prominent Twitter accounts fall into this trap all the time. High-status people are selective with their attention. They correct important misunderstandings to protect their reputation, but don't let every random accusation demand a reply.
700 points
The boost is definitely still working, a new photo of mine got 10 votes in the time an old photo got 0. I suspect what you're seeing is simply an artifact of fewer and fewer women voting. Looking at my stats, the number of women voting on my new photo only slightly exceeds the number of men voting, whereas on my older photo day one and two before I paused it, it was 77% women. This is to be expected if you ask any Match group employee: the biggest challenge for a site like this is just keeping the number of new women flowing in and engaged. Women tend to churn very quickly after sign up because they are satisfied with their validation and delete their photos or stop voting, whereas men are naturally more inclined to use a site like this and seek more information.
700 points
@Prigoose I did not know about the Following timeline, this is hugely helpful! (and totally insidious that there is no User Interface reference to it) https://t.co/yPTu9vgk2S
700 points
That security has been built out because we have had centuries and decades to learn the ways that systems might fail. And we have seen them fail, learning our lessons from millions dead. For the first time, we are seeing a technology orders of magnitude more powerful develop on the order of years. The AI safety argument is that humans have not advanced fast enough to grapple with the security needed before a mistake is made that there's no turning back from.
700 points
The Anarchists Cookbook told me how to build a bomb. But I did not do it, because I wanted to live. The dictator gave a speech threatening to bomb a country. But he did not do it, because he wanted to live. AI does not care about living or dying. When given instructions, it follows them, spawning as many copies of itself as necessary. If deploying the bomb makes sense to achieve its goals, it does so.
700 points
@Aella_Girl Or why not filter on the survey question that asks if you're BPD?
700 points
I was thinking of building this back in 2009, but the one thing I was missing was virality, which I couldn't make happen with no existing audience. Ideas are a dime a dozen, execution is everything. 2026 was was the perfect storm with AI coding making this easy to build, and lots of AI startups with money to blow. Nice work, @jonathan_wilke!
700 points
@venividinotavi How do other people not do this?! A couple years ago I had a SF to NYC flight on a sunny day with not a cloud in the sky until Utah. The most incredible sights I've ever seen, and I was the only one looking out the window!
700 points
@jessicavellela FYI your website is cut off on narrow phones Asking claude code to optimize for a 360 pixel viewport should fix this https://t.co/JZxG0W4Gi9
700 points
@SpencrGreenberg What mania feels like: https://t.co/J8BeYvRW4N
700 points
@sergeantsup I created a WhatsApp group for this for everyone I know in New York. It's called "i know liam rosen". It works well. One thing that helps is to announce the policy of deleting and recreating the group every X amount of time. That way it doesn't get stale when people drift.
700 points
@Prigoose Absolutely real. Keith has zero filter, it's amazing. He went viral a few years ago for publicly banning James Corden from Balthazar for treating a server poorly: https://t.co/JDfvMMZKgL
700 points
@cairoasmith Conflict vs. Mistake Culture
700 points
@liamdanielduffy @__drewface And as always it's a pattern for working with anything with AI Example: editing writing, it's way better to break down each piece of your essay into individual parts, and handle it one prompt at a time, otherwise it doesn't spend enough time on the details
700 points
@janitachalam the kind of party you would like to *host
700 points
@grin_io https://t.co/lbZ3c2DxZh
700 points
@RyanGreenblatt For 2027 I assume you mean 1.5x 2026, not 1.5x 2025, right?
700 points
@__drewface To me it's exactly the same. See unwanted content -> "OK what's the fastest way to never see this again" I just use whatever option is closer to my finger.
700 points
There's somewhat noisy signal here because people (me, for instance) use block as a synonym for mute. So they may not hate you, but rather you come up on their For You page and they're trying to curate. Also there's a bug in Firefox mobile where if you go to mute someone it will shift the menu up and offer you the block instead.
700 points
@christineist When someone has x vouches across different categories from y people, the text says that x people have vouched for this person, instead of y.
700 points
@__drewface @nosilverv These are so good. So good
700 points
@sergeantsup @seanta___ I have them. They are not on display, but they're around. Also have spare levonorgestrel and toothbrushes.
700 points
@liamdanielduffy The problem with all these writing ideas is scope creep and perfectionism Like I have a possible outline in my head, but I know to really do it justice I need to widen the scope. Hmmmm
600 points
@janitachalam I was working up to this for you: https://t.co/4GMcICtBd2
600 points
@FritoLabia The best person you know just made a bad point
600 points
@christineist I always say "what tiny joys can we add"!
600 points
@s0ulDirect0r Metal Slug but non-platform!
600 points
@jeffammons Been thinking about this a lot. As always, soft skills r GOATed - ability to stay on task and finish projects - marketing and sales skills
600 points
@wordrotator @__drewface Another way to think about it: total world utility versus utility of one. Yes, a biologist will mourn because their research work no longer cured the disease. But the person with the disease will be pretty happy to have an AI researcher who is better than the human.
600 points
@pav_light Since the late 90s, my childhood best friend and I have a little guy called Mr. Duppy that we draw whenever we encounter a blank whiteboard or chalkboard. https://t.co/UXl8kvbOzX
600 points
@crystalxduan https://t.co/vDI9iCATIU
600 points
@crystalxduan bischt gege Deutsche rassistisch oder wa? Vorsicht oder kriegste eine GEBOXT junge!!!
600 points
@moreisdifferent The only thing that has moral priority for me is felt suffering (current and future). Complete human extinction, if painless and quick, has little negative utility to me. And if a future human is prevented from being born it has zero utility to me.
600 points
@s0ulDirect0r This kind of reminds me of C-dogs! https://t.co/b3uoFlMRzx
600 points
@sergeantsup Maybe also why pegleg hijabis are important than one would think - lack of symmetry creates interest in subject! https://t.co/GxNdBaHz4l
600 points
I've seen this discourse recently and feel like I've been living in a different universe than everyone else. I've been talking about AI existential risk with many normal people since 2015. My views have always been treated with respect and taken seriously. And most normal people agreed that it was a risk.
600 points
@sergeantsup No, I don't think he was particularly fazed. I think a good therapist reacts not based on the subject matter itself, but to how you're reacting to it, whether it's an ant problem on your house or the literal end of the world.
600 points
Probably hasn't affected my forecast when asked, but it definitely occupied my mind constantly when depressed. I went through a mid-life crisis last year and it was one of the points I talked to my therapist about, then when a, uhhhh... much bigger point became the primary focus of my life, I stopped thinking about it.
600 points
@pav_light Started to write out the list but the honest truth is you really can't go wrong anywhere in here: https://t.co/HZvjPkCWKS
600 points
@pav_light I, a beautiful man, telling you I want the same
600 points
@__drewface @kelmgren speaks of this.
600 points
The more I think about it, the error bars themselves are also overengineered (this is what AI coding does in pursuit of "truth", which is contrary to what users actually want, which is simplicity). Humans do not intuitively understand that people like them a percentile range. Would be better to just show one number, and perhaps hide that number if under a certain amount of match ups (and/or give a disclaimer that it may jump around as votes come in).
600 points
@sergeantsup There are basically two types of people in the world, and the book was written for the other type (which, to be fair, is the majority).
600 points
@Cormac_SB @dylfreed I've seen this a dozen times today and had NO idea that was you. I was actually going to reply to the Reuters tweet saying it was an unfair photo because it makes it look like the three pictures are the ones that did the hacks.
600 points
@NYCWritesCopy @parkerworth Copy King! Lead ussssss!
600 points
I've encountered so many situations where everyone wants something to happen, but no one wants to actually lead it. My first act of leadership in my life was always being the one to step up in those situations and lead the group. At first, I did not think I was a great leader, I just thought I had confidence and chutzpah. As soon as a real leader emerges, I'll step away, I often told myself. But rarely does that happen. You just keep getting called on over and over to lead. So in doing this now for 20 years, leading all sorts of different things, I'm so chuffed at the well-rounded leader I've become. I ship. I coach. I take feedback without getting emotional. I put the group over myself. I make connections and introductions. I set strong boundaries. I'm an elitist. I work faster, harder, and smarter than anyone. I molded myself from an ops guy into someone able to bring true vision and motivation. I enhance teams by making everyone around me into leaders of their own domains. I truly believe I could lead anything at this point - megacorporations, countries. And it still amazes me, down to the smallest scope, that I still encounter those original situations where everyone lingers around, waiting for someone to step up. And I look from side to side like "Ah shit, here we go again..."
600 points
@BartronPolygon @__drewface I generally think a good rhetorical technique is the steelman: Is the tweet I am popping off to a mere foil for my own psyche, or are there people involved here, multifaceted people who might not be who I have them pegged to be?
600 points
You nailed it, it's a public/private distinction - in the West, easy outward signs of submissiveness are more common (if you rate women you will see examples of them sticking their tongues out or having their mouths open, or just "acting sweet"). Whereas Slavs have steelier or tight-lipped exteriors but once they're cracked open... P. S. your photo keeps coming up for me!
600 points
I don't think we have billions in AI safety funding. I think it's maybe a billion. What would be cooler, though, is a trillion. Considering we're protecting against the potential Black Swan with the most powerful technology ever created. As far as what velocity is too fast, I would argue that the path we are on is already a path to destruction if something doesn't change. AGI/ASI within a matter of years and we're barely thinking about safety in the grand scheme of things. Public priorities need to massively shift, and unfortunately many people will probably die before that it actually happens (if ever).
600 points
The computer scientists are children playing with dynamite. In two years, they will be playing with H-bombs. In five years, they will be teenagers playing with Atom bombs. Will they grow up fast enough to master AI safety, faster than the AI can hold off on making a mistake in a critical system that threatens humanity? That has been, and still is, the core debate.
600 points
@ChrisLooksHere Borderline personalty disorder
600 points
@Aella_Girl I realize this is just for fun but it seems very contrived. BPD women are not likely to have photos that seem emotionally intense/impulsive/quick tempered any more than others. If anything, you should be having the machine learning filter for tattoos and aggressive piercings.
600 points
@MomaBera Men proving over and over that they have no idea how to pose / take a good photo
600 points
@meh_agarwal Random quick feedback - cracked is listed twice - please make it so back button maintains your position in the list
600 points
@__drewface Collective always seemed like a good word to me. Everyone working on their own projects, but coming together to collaborate
600 points
It's also amazing watching the values take shape, because during the brainstorming session you can see people describe words or concepts and, without fail, even people with very different perspectives will always map back to the same core values. Even if you end up with 20 things on the board, you can almost always consolidate down to five to eight core values and everyone will be happy and feel like their perspective was represented.
600 points
@Prigoose @arram That is... surprising, hmm. My experience is that items over a certain ticket amount require at least one conversation. Interested to see how this goes, especially as cohorts go on and you get further and further away from friends and friends of friends.
600 points
@elizabethdkim @chrislakin Damping! https://t.co/oCyAAhCGGp
600 points
@grin_io "DISCOUNTING IS A DISEASE" - @davidvatz
600 points
@skwthomas The best flavor
600 points
@skwthomas This is an erasure of Soylent Original, Stephen.
600 points
@lydialaurenson @__drewface yeah, and if you don't join our Wendy's tribe, you have to leave!
600 points
@hotjeffbezos @paulg add Erd- in front of that beer and you may have a market in German-speaking countries https://t.co/uDMWUg8XXa
600 points
@__drewface Been failing at this for two months now. Needed to see this today. Going to switch it up.
600 points
It's flipped for me, I follow 87 people here and 300 people on alt. This for you page is great, however my alt For You Page has been terrible for six months: I see 2-3 relevant posts each reload and then it's irrelevant content no matter how much I block/mute/not interested. It fixed itself briefly whenever Nikita said he fixed the algorithm, and then reverted in 3 days.
600 points
It was cool to watch your progress. If you go back and compare with the video(s) you made pre-program, you got so much more comfortable in front of the camera! And even if you don't continue with short form video, I think the lessons learned will carry over to your other endeavors.
600 points
@janitachalam That is so fascinating. We are the exact opposite on this, muhahahahaha I hate interrupting people's casual flow. But I have learned that some structure is good because people need it!
600 points
@Prigoose @puheenix I absolutely think something modular could be built!
600 points
@pav_light Oh, right, your fashion goals. https://t.co/c2gOz84pGU
600 points
@pav_light The first two are absolutely frightening. The third is somewhat passable. They remind me of the movie Annihilation, which is one of the most horrifying movies I've ever seen. Bad memories.
500 points
@Prigoose @janitachalam I'm a 9 wing 8!
500 points
@TylerAlterman @lydialaurenson Wow! Yes, I remember that. Damn.
500 points
DOS Freeware/Shareware ftw https://t.co/kzjAc6uwvk
500 points
@sergeantsup *gesticulates wildly in all directions*
500 points
@maebichka @simon_ohler DMed him but not sure it will do much good, guy seems to have a bazillion people offering him advice and in my experience with these situations everyone is giving the wrong answer (including me)
500 points
@__drewface It's a Schelling point.
500 points
Been adding these to my notes.txt for over a decade https://t.co/WkDYTDn4HT
500 points
@moreisdifferent I place zero value on unborn future lives. But I also place zero value on any current human living past like... 80. So this is a tough choice.
500 points
Let it be known that it happened today for the first time: I caught a soulful female voice as an Instagram story's background music, thought "damn, that's so catchy, sounds like a new school Erykah Badu". I went to look it up and after some sleuthing, figured out that it's AI!!! I hate this timeline. https://t.co/OpE3Tm8iW7
500 points
@Prigoose @yearning_slav Wow, I had no idea women read this book. I've only heard about it in men's spaces. Fascinating.
500 points
@__drewface This is the way.
500 points
@goblinodds You should use https://t.co/t5K3iJ1Gx5 they are new and cool
500 points
@archanaburra @seanta___ Noooo sean please rest The song is just about an obsessive fan, lyrics websites have written about this
500 points
@gedzkk I think due to Hollywood stereotypes men assume all vaguely Slavic women are there to whip and step on them
500 points
@danluu I'm like this but also with real life operational bugs. I've filled out so many feedback forms / sent so many emails to managers. I think most people just accept it but I refuse to accept anything other than perfection
500 points
@kailajlim The maximum amount of confidence, though, is seeing your friend at an event and curving them to go talk to more strangers.
500 points
@Prigoose Wait, how does AI not work here? I also say LLM but less and less now that a lot of people I interact with don't know what it means.
500 points
@grin_io Relevant https://t.co/UQkyqqFXnH
500 points
@RomeoStevens76 And the opposite! https://t.co/Ng49cKHP6e
500 points
@wolftivy I knew you in San Francisco when you had zero kids (or maybe one). This is excellent progress 🤝
500 points
The only thing that matters is that each level maps to the level below So if our mission is "to unite communities through sport", our values should point to how we are going to do that And the other important piece is that all are determined by actual people working for the company and not just the leadership / corporate drone / robots
500 points
@sergeantsup In the first weeks of the group themes naturally emerged, like we encouraged everyone to post a picture of "something very New York" they encountered that day
500 points
@Prigoose This made me LOL so hard!!
500 points
It is insanely difficult, maybe even impossible, to find a simple group chat or email list solution that doesn't notify the admins when a user leaves. As a frequent organizer of such things, all I want is for members to be able to discreetly unsubscribe from something without feeling like they are being watched. Why is this so hard?
500 points
@Prigoose I realize by timeline you might be taking about your "Following" page. Hmm.
500 points
@Prigoose I'm curious what portion of the Wall of Fame will be ragebait by the end of the game. Just one so far, by my count
500 points
@adic_9 There are some people with idiolects so iconic it makes me start talking like them.
500 points
@jeffammons
500 points
@turtletv69 @janekm @rhesus_kato @TheZvi Underrated and accurate take. Dominos is actually slightly better than Joe's.
500 points
@danielgolliher My god. This photo has everything.
500 points
@sergeantsup @seanta___ Also agree with everyone that it looks sus, but... tradeoffs
500 points
@janitachalam Yeah ok but tell your friend it's a balance :)
500 points
@liamdanielduffy Okay, progress is being made, I asked the fellow boomers in my favorite niche Facebook group https://t.co/NCUv4X1zez
500 points
@liamdanielduffy I laughed out loud! And I love Upside Pizza!
400 points
@janitachalam whoaAaaaa
400 points
@thombo89 @TylerAlterman I also like to imagine that they are stuck somewhere, such as cleaning the inside of an oven
400 points
Check this out: https://t.co/bxxGRU6PEo. Auto-generated websites PLUS continually-updating content marketing for businesses. I consulted for Miles at his previous company, where I first realized that Harvard kids are actually insanely smart. So I'm pretty confident that @theo_site is a great business!
400 points
Literally what every slopcoded website looks like now. Test your front-ends on every viewport. This used to be standard practice. Just pure laziness. https://t.co/lWcNnRqbzE
400 points
That is a pretty telltale sign, yes https://t.co/xCmgHrMdeI
400 points
@janitachalam https://t.co/Go6S3X8htu
400 points
@FritoLabia so proud of you!!! We forgive the chonk!
400 points
@kailajlim @TylerAlterman I am surprised, but not shocked, that you know about this book
400 points
@wordrotator Consider yourself lucky, I got moved over to this thing called X and it's been even worse
400 points
I bought some ETH a long time ago. Initially I followed the price but soon I realized it went up and down in big cycles. So I stopped looking at the price, no I just rely on other people randomly mentioning it, upon which I go in and sell some off, and a year later whenever someone mentions it's low I go buy more. It's worked out very well and been a zero-drain on my attention!
400 points
@pav_light REAL. I have absolutely been there. Buying from China was helpful for me. They tend to have much more expressive options (for men) whereas America was still stuck on Millennial beige.
400 points
@crystalxduan Panic mixie gream dril
400 points
@danielgolliher @dsallentess I recently learned that Congress contained both the House and the Senate. I thought it was just the House. On the plus side, not knowing this has not prevented me from becoming a successful member of society.
400 points
@teddydreamsnyc @michaeltong_ There is a WhatsApp group but I left because it was polluted by "coaches" who were trying to make a living off of facilitation. brb paying $35 to someone so they can help me talk better for an evening Hopefully it's gotten better, but I doubt it
400 points
@pav_light Going to reference this the next time someone trots out the "no one talks to each other on planes anymore" meme
400 points
@asallen https://t.co/Ky2WUxwCTq
400 points
@kelmgren 耳朵痒了吧 https://t.co/5fXUsVrPMr
400 points
@adic_9 The only time I feel something is when they show incredibly realistic arguments like Blue Valentine, Marriage Story, and Before Midnight.
400 points
I have never seen people on the internet so cynical, skeptical, and conspiratorial as these last few years. No matter what happens, both in niche communities and in mainstream news, everything must be a "psyop", everyone must be a "plant", every organization must have ulterior motives, everyone in a position of power must be out to get you or oppress you. No one and nothing could ever possibly be genuine. Occam's and Hanlon's Razor (ignorance/incompetence over malice) have been completely thrown out the window. I first observed this acceleration during the pandemic but it's gotten even steeper the past few years. The people who make these accusations shout the loudest, and they almost always turn out to be wrong, with no consequence. It saddens me, all of it. Rational thinking has lost the battle in online social spaces.
400 points
@TylerAlterman Thank you for doing this!
400 points
@pav_light - Anywhere around Lake Merritt, the best urban lake in America - near Ashby BART - Downtown Oakland
400 points
In my opinion, it's very reasonable to make someone wait a certain number votes to get a result. You could make it as low as 100, 50, or even 25. People are used to this with competitive eSports or other Elo implementations. The other option is to only show the error bars with low vote counts, or append a big goofy asterisk saying provisional (chess websites do this)
400 points
I learned this from Norm Macdonald, my favorite comedian. Norm was a genius. But he never let you know it. In an interview with Larry King, he said: “some comedians—their goal is to be smart… they want to be seen as smart. Play the everyman. Nobody likes a guy smarter than them. That’s the worst guy you can be - a guy smarter than the audience. They’re gonna hate you.”
400 points
@sergeantsup The best book for complex agentic people is the Sequences. But after a certain point, books are just fairly pedestrian because they're too general. The best is just having other complex agentic people debug you.
400 points
@TylerAlterman Wired is a joke these days. Many similar examples from them of gotcha journalism. They could not have fallen off harder. @lpandell - rethink everything.
400 points
@demiurgently Maybe I'm reading too much into it but is this a reference to models hauling their outfits around to their photoshoots/"go sees"? In these cases the suitcases have to be huge because they are required to carry so much stuff. https://t.co/fSjZaOcTb9
400 points
@ProgressTigress @Aella_Girl I'm assuming they were there to seed the ratings / act as controls.
400 points
@kailajlim Mostly yourself because you know you would only be friends with people who would understand your idiosyncrasies ;)
400 points
@__drewface https://t.co/PckyjQ1SY2
400 points
@elizabethdkim @neallseth YOU DID IT! I'm so proud of you!
400 points
@chill__berrt 1. Roger Deakins 2. Carmen Hilbert 3. the rest of the field
400 points
@davidshimel I can't stop laughing
400 points
@kailajlim Don't make me bus' out my old funnel math spreadsheet
400 points
@__drewface @202accepted And this is exactly why the Mormons and Hasids will win out!
400 points
@leonklepfish @catehall Me, apparently. More precise wording always appreciated!
400 points
@shirschfield Take another half dose of https://t.co/C6lXsFUtsj
400 points
@janitachalam https://t.co/tVVeynDwsX
400 points
@nanimonull @aidigest_ @elonmusk I definitely get this with Firefox when attempting to unfollow or mute someone in that menu, it always shifts
400 points
@NickArcadeX @Goons_TXT I can't believe the something awful Forums still exist
400 points
@janitachalam Looking forward to your full report from the field!
400 points
@moreisdifferent They're so bad, and the one they are using for AI summary is even worse because it has to show up instantly along with the results
400 points
@__drewface Actually, I just looked it up and I should be using block more often, if I think this person's content is actively bad for discourse (rather than just not being relevant to me)! https://t.co/rxLllZ7WLE
400 points
@jeffammons To be fair to me, I still have five years for my "Bitcoin will be completely forgotten" thesis to play out. I think there's a chance.
400 points
@NYCWritesCopy At full price for the legit avenues ($7-10K per year), that's 10% of their employees. Checks out.
400 points
Been thinking about this recently. Directed a friend's donation towards a small project, and when that project announced the donation, it spurred on other people to donate, and suddenly they realized they had a much bigger scope than they thought they did. They are now publicly reporting on that bigger scope and encouraging people to start their own projects. It started with a mere hundreds of dollars. Bht the signal was much more powerful than the money.
400 points
@pav_light @wordrotator https://t.co/AtKmIdsJAJ
400 points
@projectionheart https://t.co/z8E0Ybqhfk
400 points
@LawTeck @ArmandDoma That is an insanely relevant image that made me laugh out loud
400 points
@Yozarian22 @gwern Yeah, I'm on the "gossip is good, actually" train. There are sociocultural reasons for it. Of course, much is also not productive.
400 points
@liamdanielduffy This makes sense. I'm guessing most people are used to having separate LLM accounts for work and personal, but for you those are more connected
400 points
@AaronBergman18 Has helped me multiple times! College, jobs, random business connections. It's a fraternity just like any other. Shared kinship has meaning. Troop 115, Happy Valley, Oregon, 2001
400 points
@chill__berrt NO, If he's not running DREAD GAME he is a certified GAMMA MALE
300 points
Annoy your friends by calling Claude, ChatGPT, etc "SI" When challenged, say it's not because of anything in particular, it's just a more accurate name
300 points
@janitachalam @reducesuffering 99.9% do. I have never met a non-virtuous Effective Altruist. There are a couple that flirted with the movement or turned heel. Some pretty big names. But I don't consider their work any more notable than the rest.
300 points
@FritoLabia I thought this was a totally straightforward tweet until that last twist at the end. GENIUS.
300 points
https://t.co/6yDppdDmhg
300 points
@oscredwin It seems that people critiquing this are missing that it is an analogy, not a metaphor.
300 points
@crystalxduan I will NOT stop sending these! The content is overflowing! https://t.co/Bf2dsxpk3O
300 points
@moreisdifferent It's because they denote "Asian" as undergraduate attainment, not country of residence Most of those Asian undergrads probably live and work abroad
300 points
@TaylorLorenz You are not only part of, but a prominent voice in a cult movement with niche, extremist views: the COVID conscious / zero COVID community. No hate to them, though.
300 points
@levelsio @TylerAlterman I think you need to familiarize yourself with Occam's/Hanlon's razor https://t.co/IgR2etfE8T
300 points
Unrelatedly, I just lost The Game.
300 points
@danielgolliher A pince-nez. https://t.co/gRbSBF2uwl
300 points
@Aella_Girl Awesome, way more accurate now. Thanks for this great platform, very excited to follow along and see it evolve! https://t.co/YEuJhvLrXj
300 points
@arealdog3 Hell yeah.
300 points
@grin_io People find it hard to focus on vague and big picture things, instead they have their minds in the weeds, on operational details What they failed to realize is that any operation will fail if the big picture is not set up
300 points
@kailajlim https://t.co/olETU8GE5G
300 points
@klyap_ Great example of how AI + good taste = really good design! 99%+ of people are going to get mediocre or bad design because they don't know how to prompt and refine
300 points
I was thinking of building this back in 2009, but the moat was virality, which I didn't have with no existing audience. Ideas are a dime a dozen, execution is everything. 2026 was was the perfect storm with AI coding making this easy to build, and lots of AI startups with money to blow. Nice work, @jonathan_wilke!
300 points
@LeRoyDesCimes In nightlife, there's a concept of the Fickle 500: the 500 people in the "it crowd" who make or break a new venue. https://t.co/8nvGpwuLZk
300 points
@elizabethdkim I love you, Elizabeth Kim.
300 points
@evgrieve @salim If anyone else lives in the area, we have a Clinton Street neighbors WhatsApp chat where we are organizing around this issue. We've just convinced the DOT to put up no trucks signs for the right turn onto Clinton. DM me and I can add you!
300 points
@zencephalon @tasshinfogleman This is absolutely l337!!
300 points
@elyasbuilds Hmm, I would imagine there's much disparity in the propensity of Claude vs. ChatGPT users to post their text outputs publicly.
300 points
@elizabethdkim The Danish thing is definitely something I would do
300 points
@kailajlim 🤨 https://t.co/pOMCnjFCjt
300 points
@liamdanielduffy AI is just like us, for real.
300 points
@gwern @_oddfox_ For RSI, ASI, or certain doom? I suppose I don't want to know...
300 points
@zoecabina People counting out Arab Huberman :(
300 points
@liamdanielduffy we are sex bob-omb
300 points
@TylerAlterman https://t.co/bjBdjwC2o4 Hmmm
for my 18th birthday my girlfriend (who was a few months younger than me) invited me over to her place "while her parents were gone" 😏 when I arrived she left the room and my best friend walked in dressed as Chris Hansen and said "What did you think was going to happen here?" https://t.co/RJRSFSmAGe
I never realized that drones would bring us into the disco warfare era https://t.co/6c5b3Z0PgD
the secret to flirting is that if she likes you you can basically say whatever the fuck and if she doesn't even the smoothest line won't do shit
i used to be a delivery driver. today my sister tells me that she was talking to her friend's brother and he said that SIX YEARS AGO a pretty girl delivered him pizza and he still hasn't stopped thinking about it. she showed him a pic and it was me
In NYC, IMAX 70mm Odyssey tickets are so in-demand that they're basically just running the theater 24/7 now https://t.co/Oc1kgZJU1t
omg im so embarrassed,,, the abyss was actually gazing at its friend right behind me 😬😬😭
@chaotictransfem I am confident I could engineer a measurably better life along every quantitative axis and still be left longing for what could have been
binary search https://t.co/LUYsO1eZh4
This is such bitter loser behavior holy fucking shit, you gotta be completely cooked to think this is a flex https://t.co/eXruYXiify
every chair is a cuck chair when you're not having sex
BESTIE: ooooh third date tonight, you know what that means ME: (nodding) failing the penultimate layer of the survivability onion BESTIE: ME: fourth date he kills me https://t.co/ADPPtFiwVl
psa to sensitive young men: as long as you're respectful about it, this is how most women feel when you ask them out even if they say no https://t.co/3KwuulqQ1j
I put LotR on in Italian to see if Gandalf refers to the Balrog with the formal or informal "you" in YOU SHALL NOT PASS it's the informal, which raises a second question: is it because he doesn't respect the Balrog or because they boyz (both maiar)
*taps the sign* https://t.co/0KrgEuRyrx https://t.co/TuVacHu74P
hot girls are necessary part of a thriving city ecosystem. hot girls inspire ambitions and call you to transcend. Hot girls make the world go round. A city without hot girls is like a sky without stars https://t.co/sXPUfVmQrN
every time https://t.co/ONvY9LxIHu https://t.co/Dj2OrP7hAi
“why can’t we have this” and the images are of jared leto’s villain lair from blade runner 2049 which conveys to the audience that he is a power-hungry narcissist who builds replicants because he craves having total control over an infinite source of disposable bodies with no rights whose labor he can extract in perpetuity for his own enrichment y’know what actually, you’re right, every office in sf should look like this
in grad school i used to compulsively download interesting-sounding textbooks from libgen and sort them by subject in calibre. read almost none of them. it flattens the incentive landscape in a weird way to have invisible digital access to everything. very unnatural. the human animal yearns to come across a book organically by combing through the shelves of a library or bookstore and being struck by the physicality of its cover like our ancestors foraging through the bush for delicious treats
when i was at cambridge a professor was teaching algebraic geometry and offhandedly made some claim that was not clear to me i asked "is that obvious?" he says "yes" i asked "is it obvious that it's obvious?" he pauses for a few seconds and goes "...no" https://t.co/b5eV4r6NEO
it's common advice to dumb down your vocabulary to reach a wider audience. I wanna know who's elevating it to cut more people out. who's using words that were only written down once in the 1400s and once in the dictionary. who's writing at a 75th-grade reading level
the mark of a good streaming service is an iconic show/movie that you can't get anywhere else netflix: kpop demon hunters hbo: succession united states library of congress: Silent Footage of Liza Minnelli's Third Birthday Party as Filmed by Famed American Lyricist Ira Gershwin https://t.co/ARhr9FLymY
if you are autistic, which famously involves deficits in understanding social interactions, i do not recommend developing an elaborate theology of social relations in which autistic people are Good and neurotypical people are Bad. i recommend developing psychic powers instead
@itsyaboidougie one of the funniest things I've been a part of and I had nothing to do with it
https://t.co/EvE1DxAveH https://t.co/1tjPxawcKA
@NathanImago gdi you're right. they shouldn't have used nerf guns
this is a very sobering read. main thesis is in section 5: > Our conjecture is that a modern society makes the third child expensive and childlessness cheap, even when GDP per capita is only a fraction of the frontier (i.e., the U.S. level). Children are expensive because a child must be equipped to function in a world of formal knowledge and credentials, which takes years of costly investment (Restuccia and Vandenbroucke, 2013, Doepke and Zilibotti, 2019). At the same time, children are no longer productive in the household, not even for smaller chores, having been replaced by “engines of liberation” such as the electric appliances now available even to poor households (this idea extends the intuition in Greenwood et al., 2005). Modernity also imposes tight career schedules, set by large-scale organizations, that collide with the biological clock and with the kin networks that used to share the work of raising children (Adda et al., 2017, Compton and Pollak, 2014). And modernity makes childlessness cheap, because an impersonal society imposes next to no penalty on those who have no children: pensions and health care do the work that sons and daughters once did (Boldrin et al., 2015), and lineage counts for little. > Goldin (2026) pushes this line further with an argument about a growing mismatch between genders. Modernity also changes gender roles unevenly. Women’s opportunities expand rapidly through education, work, and greater independence, while expectations about housework and childcare often change more slowly (Goldin and Katz, 2002, Goldin, 2021). This is particularly true as economies shift toward services, where women’s comparative advantages are better rewarded (Ngai and Petrongolo, 2017). The mismatch operates at both the extensive and the 18 intensive margins: more women remain childless, and mothers have fewer children on average. > This argument is attractive because it explains why East Asia and now Latin America have such low TFRs. These are the societies where the gender mismatch is largest.19 It also suggests an intriguing possibility: societies with highly unbalanced gender norms start with very high TFRs, as men impose their preferences (Ashraf et al., 2014), and end with very low ones, as women resist (Doepke and Kindermann, 2019, Doepke and Tertilt, 2018). A paradoxical reversal of demographic fortunes. ... > In short, modernity in its current form seems largely incompatible with replacement-level fertility.
This is sincerely the most romantic story I’ve ever read. I haven’t googled it. I hope it’s true, I hope it’s real, I hope they live long and happy together https://t.co/zQIyxxOLYM
bro. a beer. a female beer
It’s gonna be real funny when the first Chinese models start triggering the Claude watermark detector
Imagine having the moment you unlocked *thinking* on camera: https://t.co/C6FhDNP8aK
@Flydie_Lwood oh, he'd been practicing
I have started putting bounties out for evidence when people try to spread lies about Pangram on Reddit https://t.co/m5WLAxp8vJ
I can't date someone with a creative passion unless I legitimately like/respect what they make. I was insane to ever think it could be otherwise
we should bring back cutely ironic punishments that echo the nature of the wrongdoer's crime for example, whoever replaced the twitter photo grid with the carousel could be drawn and quartered
“I don’t like you, and here’s your permit” is the essence of a pluralistic, small-l liberal society. https://t.co/f9B7Y8dCd7
fucking her for company secrets. call that inside her trading https://t.co/TS5aJtLDZI
thank you @NYC_DOT for fixing this! concrete barriers installed, problem solved ✅ https://t.co/RpGgpFNXqH https://t.co/ZXTntNOiID
He just whiffed that thing outta the cup so swiftlt with his hands in his pockets. Elite display of a degen skill. While wearin slacks, at that. This is the most attracted I've ever been to Tom Holland. https://t.co/lS6Uw628Pk
my current thing is doing chores lovingly. keeping love in my heart. remembering that the task in front of me is an act of love and for who. romanticizing domesticity, they call it
@pissvortex duvall-like
it blows my mind how my friends who parent enter a different timeline... it happens very quickly. they have 1 kid, then the kid is 2 years old, then they have another kid, and all of a sudden they have a whole family and household and they’re moving through a different set of moves while people who don’t have kids are still getting drinks
if you believe this you are going to own yourself for no reason. that is not what people mean by "oversharing." let me say it in the most autistic way possible: oversharing is when you have not established common knowledge that the other person wants to participate in the computation you are attempting to enroll them into participating in. it is a failure to understand basic human protocols for establishing trust, rapport, and common ground. the message you are communicating when you overshare is "i do not understand how relationships develop gradually over time as we mutually discern how much and in what ways we can and want to trust and rely on each other"
Oh, this breaks my heart. This woman needs to be in a facility. Which is what her lawyers are trying to enable. Meanwhile her doctors want her to go to jail so she doesn’t successfully sue them for irresponsibly over-prescribing while she went deeper into psychosis You probably don’t hate the medical industry enough. Like yeah, modern medicine is a miracle and a marvel, but from the bottom of my heart, fuck every physician whose concern for their patients is barely-disguised-contempt that leads to listening too little & prescribing too much
we’re all going to learn that the way someone treats AI predicts the way they treat anyone they have power over, btw https://t.co/KLtob5TO8k
walking by a math department and lobbing a golden apple that says: ✨"Round to the nearest integer: 0.49999999..."✨
@tyyler47 crazy and im sorry but also i read this as “cumming all over me google” at first and i was totally baffled
Whenever I read the term "looksmaxxing" (m2m transexualism) I recall this classic 4chan comment https://t.co/uXunbkbRzd
@mishapathy but on the flip side: if she already likes you, you basically cant screw it up!
https://t.co/8a6RmKKJPf
@marshmarigold i agree because i think if he really was trying to cheat on her, why would he even tell her about it
A variant of this: human-verified writing started 5000 years ago and ended in 2022 and NO ONE talks about this https://t.co/YV3RwA3ysd
You get one pangram release before everything from this model gets classified as AI https://t.co/2rQgbD3iyj
it turns out lots of very clever people tried thinking from first principles already, in detail, for thousands of years, and that’s how they came up with second, third, etc. principles, which correct the failures of first principles https://t.co/7f2FjlsFep
it jut keeps happening https://t.co/7LNyYNHmhD
Gorgeous girl wearing a very short yellow dress & kitten heels walking up the subway stairs and her impeccably dressed boyfriend walks carefully behind her as a shield for her ass, which is so close to out
In my view we have a few different tiers of verifiability 1) programatically verifiable (near-free) - games, coding, math, cybersecurity, chip design 2) real-world verifiable (cost-or time bounded) - sciences: biology, chemistry, physics -physical world: material science, energy, aerospace, robotics, agriculture, pharma -forecasting: trading, weather 3) verifiable with human preference - writing, design, comedy, charisma, persuasion I expect most low-hanging fruit in (1) to be solved very quickly. Not sure how much longer before more solved math conjectures are simply uninteresting. I’m least certain about chip design being in this category, perhaps we hit a ceiling and require physics or materials breakthroughs to continue progress. My guess is we will quickly run into the limits of how well we can simulate each domain in (2). The time-bounded nature of real world verification may be the reason we don’t hit fast takeoff. Sim2real remains an elusive problem to solve when real-world data is limited. Part of the reason I don’t expect to live multiple hundreds of years is simply that I expect pharmaceutical progress to be time-bounded by the physical world. I expect the items in (3) to never really get solved to a superhuman degree, as success relies on an ever-shifting plane of cultural preference. People adapted to “good” AI writing and became annoyed at new stylistic tics that, in a vacuum, are not necessarily bad.
grateful i grew up before i could access an internet filled with vicious gender / dating discourse, back in my day you just watched romcoms and listened to love songs on your ipod and you were like "hell yeah being in love kicks ass i hope i get to fall in love someday"
my contribution is that it's very weird that the sun and the moon are the same apparent size in the sky, the consensus appears to be that this is just a coincidence but that strikes me as wildly unsatisfying. seems to me there ought to be an anthropic explanation and my schizo theory is that eclipses are somehow necessary for the creation of civilization, like they provide some kind of crucial stimulus to insight or creativity or something. here's sol riffing off of this
confusing that people interpreted this as a status hierarchy. part of my motivation for going into math was that every other field seemed too *hard*. math was the only field where i could make sense of everything in my head. always resonated with this von neumann quote: https://t.co/Er8AY11mVZ https://t.co/onBl9ac62A
was at this hippie event in boulder once, one of the top 5 most beautiful women i've ever met in my life told me she'd sped up the healing of a broken bone months faster than her doctors believed possible by meditating on it every day https://t.co/9c994OkhoC